Author(s) :

Dan Long, Yang Hong, Jian-guo Su.

Volume/Issue :

Abstract :

Entrepreneurs have to make lots of decisions when they start a business. The way they make decisions greatly affects the new venture performance. More and more scholars pay close attention to this research field. This paper reviews the recent development of the relationship between entrepreneurial decision-making logic and new venture performance. First, this paper summaries the research methods on the relationship between entrepreneurial decision-making logic and new venture performance. Then it classifies the related researches into the three categories which are direct impact, the contextual factors and the mediation factors. Finally, this paper analyzes the shortcomings of the current research from the perspectives of the theoretical basis, research methods and research contents. It points out the future research direction.

No. of Downloads :

0

Author(s) :

Nicola Rubino.

Volume/Issue :

Abstract :

This paper presents an analysis of a group of small commodity ex- porting countries‘price differentials relative to the US dollar. Using Un- restricted Self exciting Threshold Autoregressive models (SETAR), we model and evaluate sixteen national Consumers‘Price Index (CPI) differentials relative to the US dollar CPI. Out-of-sample forecast accuracy is evaluated through calculation of mean absolute errors measures based on monthly rolling window and recursive forecasts and extended to three additional models, namely a logistic smooth transition regression (LSTAR), an additive nonlinear autoregressive model (AAR) and a simple Neural Network model (NNET). Our preliminary results confirm presence of some form of nonlinearity in most of the countries analyzed. The parsimonious AR(1) model does mot appear to perform any worse than any nonlinear model in the rolling sample exercise. However, its validity in terms of a long run equilibrium driven by Purchasing Power Parity is undermined by the results of the recursive estimates and the outcome of the Diebold-Mariano type tests, which more generally favor the Heckscher commodity points theory. As a policy advice to commodity exporting countries, we find no apparent reason to suggest commodity export price pegging as a generalized foreign exchange policy.

No. of Downloads :

0

Author(s) :

Prof. Silvia Trifonova, PhD, Svilen Kolev, PhD.

Volume/Issue :

Abstract :

The paper is devoted to the unconventional monetary policy measures, implemented by the US Federal Reserve after the Global Financial Crisis. The objective of the study is to conduct an empirical analysis and econometric study on the effects from the US Fed non-standard monetary policy measures on the US financial market, namely by observing the reaction on the US 10-year government bond yield, the US stock market via the S&P 500 index and the exchange rate of the US dollar versus the euro (EUR/USD). The examination of the monetary policy transmission through the interest rate, the exchange rate and the portfolio balance channel is one of the main tasks of the paper. The research and the econometric analysis are dedicated to the empirical study on the dynamics and the relations between the Fed’s quantitative easing and changes in the US federal funds rate. The observed period spreads from January 2009 to March 2019, with the use of monthly data. It captures the Fed’s unconventional monetary policy measures, the first steps of the then planned gradual termination of QE and lifting of the interest rates, which was reverted in the course of 2019 and 2020. The results from the constructed vector error correction model suggest that Fed’s monetary policy stance continues to influence the changes of the bond yields, the S&P 500 index and the value of the US dollar. Conclusions and proposals are made, regarding the future interest rates path in the US under the Fed’s monetary policy.

No. of Downloads :

0