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Author(s):
Prof. Silvia Trifonova, PhD, Svilen Kolev, PhD.
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IMPACT OF THE FED’S UNCONVENTIONAL MONETARY POLICY ON THE US FINANCIAL MARKET
Abstract
The paper is devoted to the unconventional monetary policy measures, implemented by the US Federal Reserve after the Global Financial Crisis. The objective of the study is to conduct an empirical analysis and econometric study on the effects from the US Fed non-standard monetary policy measures on the US financial market, namely by observing the reaction on the US 10-year government bond yield, the US stock market via the S&P 500 index and the exchange rate of the US dollar versus the euro (EUR/USD). The examination of the monetary policy transmission through the interest rate, the exchange rate and the portfolio balance channel is one of the main tasks of the paper. The research and the econometric analysis are dedicated to the empirical study on the dynamics and the relations between the Fed’s quantitative easing and changes in the US federal funds rate. The observed period spreads from January 2009 to March 2019, with the use of monthly data. It captures the Fed’s unconventional monetary policy measures, the first steps of the then planned gradual termination of QE and lifting of the interest rates, which was reverted in the course of 2019 and 2020. The results from the constructed vector error correction model suggest that Fed’s monetary policy stance continues to influence the changes of the bond yields, the S&P 500 index and the value of the US dollar. Conclusions and proposals are made, regarding the future interest rates path in the US under the Fed’s monetary policy.
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Author(s):
Firas Rifai.
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The Financially Independent School Thorough Improvement of Public Schools without any Additional Costs Decentralization in Improvement’s Decision Making to create Entrepreneurial Generation
Abstract
Many of the less developed countries, such as Jordan, suffer from poverty and unemployment. One of the best ways to reduce poverty and unemployment is through entrepreneurial and innovative new start-ups.
Since the existence of entrepreneurial characteristics is not limited to a particular human race, everyone could have entrepreneurial qualities. Therefore, we must address all future generations and encourage them to think and act entrepreneurial and even to try to discover the Jordanian Bill Gates, Steve Jobs or Mark Zuckerberg.
How can we address all future generation? The short answer is "Through Schools".
The formation and accumulation of human capital requires a high-performance education system that can face new challenges and meet new requirements. The widespread teaching methods in Jordan are not effectively able to transfer entrepreneurial qualities and abilities to the pupils.
In comparison to reading, listening, speaking or writing, people can remember 90% of what they do. Doing is considered the best way to learn, receive information (experience, characteristics, abilities) and to keep it in the long term. Therefore, the author emphasizes the action orientation to promote the entrepreneurial skills and abilities of students in schools.
With this model, the "Independent School", the author tries to give schools their own partial responsibility (financial independency). In doing so, we broaden the scope of action of the directors, teachers and above all the students. This model does not only target educational and entrepreneurial goals, but it targets also social and economic goals in wide rang.
The author distributed 500 small questionnaires asking pupils in public schools about this model and this idea. 75% of them show clear acceptance and interest in implementing this model and this idea. Through this model schools will be increasingly strengthened from inside and out of their own power and become more efficient.
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Author(s):
Dan Long, Yang Hong, Jian-guo Su.
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How does entrepreneurial decision-making logic affect new venture performance? A literature review
Abstract
Entrepreneurs have to make lots of decisions when they start a business. The way they make decisions greatly affects the new venture performance. More and more scholars pay close attention to this research field. This paper reviews the recent development of the relationship between entrepreneurial decision-making logic and new venture performance. First, this paper summaries the research methods on the relationship between entrepreneurial decision-making logic and new venture performance. Then it classifies the related researches into the three categories which are direct impact, the contextual factors and the mediation factors. Finally, this paper analyzes the shortcomings of the current research from the perspectives of the theoretical basis, research methods and research contents. It points out the future research direction.
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Author(s):
Nicola Rubino.
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In and out-of-sample performance of nonlinear models in international price differential forecasting in a commodity country framework
Abstract
This paper presents an analysis of a group of small commodity ex- porting countries‘price differentials relative to the US dollar. Using Un- restricted Self exciting Threshold Autoregressive models (SETAR), we model and evaluate sixteen national Consumers‘Price Index (CPI) differentials relative to the US dollar CPI. Out-of-sample forecast accuracy is evaluated through calculation of mean absolute errors measures based on monthly rolling window and recursive forecasts and extended to three additional models, namely a logistic smooth transition regression (LSTAR), an additive nonlinear autoregressive model (AAR) and a simple Neural Network model (NNET). Our preliminary results confirm presence of some form of nonlinearity in most of the countries analyzed. The parsimonious AR(1) model does mot appear to perform any worse than any nonlinear model in the rolling sample exercise. However, its validity in terms of a long run equilibrium driven by Purchasing Power Parity is undermined by the results of the recursive estimates and the outcome of the Diebold-Mariano type tests, which more generally favor the Heckscher commodity points theory. As a policy advice to commodity exporting countries, we find no apparent reason to suggest commodity export price pegging as a generalized foreign exchange policy.
