The Impact of Competitiveness on Trade Efficiency: The Asian Experience by Using the Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model
Memduh Alper Demir, Mustafa Bilik, and Utku Utkulu
The purpose of this study is to examine the bilateral machinery and transport equipment trade efficiency of selected fourteen Asian countries by applying stochastic frontier gravity model. These selected countries have the top machinery and transport equipment trade (both export and import) volumes in Asia. The model we use includes variables such as income, market size of trading partners, distance, common culture, common border, common language and global economic crisis similar to earlier studies using the stochastic frontier gravity models. Our work, however, includes an extra variable called normalized revealed comparative advantage (NRCA) index additionally. The NRCA index is comparable across commodity, country and time. Thus, the NRCA index is calculated and then included in our stochastic frontier gravity model to see the impact of competitiveness (here measured by the NRCA index) on the efficiency of trade.
Keywords: Gravity Model, Stochastic Frontier Analysis, Efficiency, Trade, Normalized Revealed Comparative Advantage Index, Asia
Future Fossil Fuel Price Impacts on NDC Achievement; Estimation of GHG Emissions and Mitigation Costs
Yosuke Arino, Fuminori Sano, and Keigo Akimoto
The Shale Revolution in the US, a supply-side innovation in oil and gas production, has been dramatically changing the world’s fossil fuel energy markets – leading to a decrease in oil, gas and coal prices. Some projections suggest that low fossil fuel prices might continue at least over the next few decades. Uncertainty in fossil fuel prices might affect the levels of emission reductions expected from submitted nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and/or influence the difficulty of achieving the NDCs. This paper evaluated the impact of different (high, medium, and low) fossil fuel prices, sustained through to 2050, on worldwide GHG emissions reductions and associated costs (mainly marginal abatement costs (MACs)). Total global GHG emissions were estimated to be 57.5-61.5 GtCO2eq by 2030, with the range shown reflecting uncertainties about fossil fuel prices and the target levels of several NDCs (i.e., whether their upper or lower targets were adopted). It was found that lower fuel prices not only diminished the environmental effectiveness of global NDCs but also widened regional differences of marginal and total abatement costs, thereby generating more room for carbon leakage. One possible policy direction in terms of abatement efficiency, fairness and environmental effectiveness would be to require countries with low marginal and total abatement costs but having a major influence on global GHG emissions (such as China and India) to increase their mitigation efforts, especially in a low-fuel-price world.
Keywords: Paris Agreement, Nationally Determined Contributions, Shale Revolution, Fossil Fuel Prices, Marginal Abatement Cost, Carbon Leakage
New Season New Hopes: Off-Season Optimism
Oguz Ersan and Ender Demir
While literature on the relation between on-field sports performance and stock returns is ample, there is very limited evidence on off-season stage. Constituting around 3 months, off-seasons do not only occupy a significant part of the year but also represent totally different characteristics than on-seasons. They lack the periodic, unambiguous news events in on-seasons (match results), instead they are associated with highly uncertain transfer news and rumors. We show that this distinction has several impacts on the stock market performances of soccer clubs. Most notably, off-seasons generate substantially higher (excess) returns. After controlling for other variables, the estimated effect of off-season periods is as high as 38.75%, annually. In line with several seminal studies, we link this fact to increased optimism and betting behavior through uncertain periods; and periods prior to the start of a new calendar (in our case, new season). For all of the examined 7 clubs (3 from Italy and 4 from Turkey), mean excess returns over the market are positive (negative) in off-seasons (on-seasons). On-seasons are associated with increased trading activity due to more frequent news. Stocks of Italian clubs are evidently more volatile through off-seasons while volatility results for the stocks of Turkish clubs are not consistent.
Keywords: Off-season, On-season, Soccer Clubs, “Sell in May and Go Away”, Fan-investors, Optimism, Uncertainty
Determinants of Tax Fairness Perception and the Role of Self-Interest – Results from Two German Surveys
Sebastian E. Spiegel and Alexandra Kloss
This paper discusses why citizens perceive a tax system as fair or unfair. We review the literature about tax fairness and tax preferences. From this literature, we extract the most common explanations for tax fairness perception. Most important are the topics of vertical and horizontal fairness, complexity and the discussion between the benefit and the ability-to-pay-principle. Within these topics, we deal also with very current topics like the controversy between capital and labor taxation or the affluence tax. To answer the questions how the tax fairness is perceived in Germany and what criteria are most useful to explain these attitudes, we conduct two surveys. One is a convenience sample, by the help of SoSciPanel a German online respondent pool, and the other is a student survey. Also, the role of self-interest in these aspects is addressed. Especially we want to shed light on the role of income expectations by the difference between the full population survey and the student survey, since the latter group is more homogenous in actual income.
Keywords: Public Economics, Taxation, Fairness, Trust
Growth Performance of MENA And African Countries: Impacts of the Variations in Land and Natural Resource Ownership
Ece H. Guleryuz
This paper examines the primary determinants of the contemporary economic growth performance in MENA and African countries using a panel data estimation and random effects model during the period 1996-2014 for 24 countries. It is hypothesized that the variation in natural resources rents, initial human capital stock, and initial inequality in land ownership have significant impacts on contemporary economic growth rates in different countries. Furthermore, various political economy factors are controlled for in order to measure the effect of institutional quality. The estimation results show that the natural resources rents, initial inequality in land ownership, initial income, and government effectiveness influence GDP per capita growth rates with a statistical significance.
Keywords: Land Distribution Inequality, Natural Resources Rents, Initial Conditions, Conditional Convergence, MENA and African Countries
Analyzing Contagion from the U.S. Subprime Mortgage-Backed Securities Market
This paper analyzes contagion from the U.S. subprime mortgage-backed securities market, represented by the ABX.HE indices, to several fixed income, equity and volatility markets in line with seminal literature on the subject. We analyze ‘spliced’ data set constructed in line with the literature, along with two traded ABX.HE indexes. A VAR framework is employed, firstly to extend existing analysis to include 2009, and then to analyze two traded indexes. In order to test the sensitivity of these results ABX returns are then included as an eighth endogenous variable in the VAR. Principal component analysis is employed to reduce the dimensionality of the data. The main principal component obtained is then included as an exogenous variable in the VAR framework and the sensitivity of these results is tested by including this principal component as an eighth endogenous variable. The results indicate evidence of contagion from the ABX indexes during the crisis of 2007-2009 but the source and intensity of this contagion varies across indexes. This highlights the differences across the three ABX data sets analyzed and suggests that splicing the ABX index may impact the results obtained. It also provides evidence that the traded ABX indexes are heterogeneous assets with varying sensitivities to risk factors during the crisis.
Keywords: Subprime Crisis, ABX Indexes, Principal Component Analysis, Contagion
Regime Switching Determinants of Sovereign CDS Spreads: Evidence from Turkey
In this study, it is assessed the main determinants of sovereign CDS spreads in Turkey from January 2006 to December 2015. Before delving into the nonlinear Markov regime-switching model estimation, a conventional one-state linear model is estimated answering to what extent the sovereign credit risk is affected in between global and country-specific market variables and by credit ratings announcement changes. In broad strokes, the regime-switching analysis reveals that among domestic variables, it is the foreign exchange rate that affects the sovereign credit risk more in more volatile periods and among global variables, the indicators standing for global volatility risk premiums and international liquidity primarily influence the changes in the sovereign CDS spread in turbulent regimes whereas proxies for global risk free rate are significant more in tranquil regimes.
Keywords: Sovereign CDS Spread, Markov Regime-Switching, Turkey
Reverse Leveraged Buyout Return Behavior: Some European Evidence
Trevor W. Chamberlain and Francois-Xavier Joncheray
This study investigates the stock performance of reverse leveraged buyouts (RLBOs) before, during, and after the global financial crisis. An RLBO consists of the return to public investors (i.e. the offering of stocks to the public) of a company that had gone private after a leveraged buyout (LBO) led by a private equity fund. The value created by an RLBO resides in the changes brought by the LBO fund while it owns the company. After a “repackaging” of the bought company, the private equity fund sells the company’s shares to the public. Most of the research on this topic, based on RLBOs that occurred between 1980 and 2005 in the US, has shown that RLBOs outperform their peers (i.e. other IPOs) and outperform the market after going public again. Focusing on RLBO companies in Europe in the financial crisis era, this study investigates whether they also outperform other IPOs and the market. The study is based on a sample of 421 IPOs occurring between 2001 and 2011 in France, Germany and the UK, of which 52 are RLBOs. We examine RLBO performance one day, one month, one year and three years after the offering. We also use event study methods to investigate the impact of the global financial crisis on RLBO performance. We find that European RLBOs outperform both their peers (i.e. “classic” IPOs) and the market during the period studied. This outperformance does not diminish in the long-term. The global financial crisis appears to have affected RLBO performance, which weakened between 2007 and 2009, though RLBOs still outperformed the market. In addition, multivariable regressions were used to examine various extant explanations for RLBO outperformance. This analysis did not support any of the prevailing theories. In particular, the value created by RLBOs does not appear to be linked to LBO duration, sponsor reputation, or to the level of leverage employed. There is no evidence of time or industry effects. Moreover, RLBO performance shows no correlation with market capitalization. The explanation of why RLBOs outperform both other IPOs and the market continues to be a puzzle. Further theoretical elaboration is required.
Keywords: Empirical Asset Pricing, Leveraged Buyouts, Initial Public Offerings, Financial Crisis
Constructing a Multi-Regional Social Accounting Matrix for Turkey
Metin Piskin and Christopher M. Hannum
Regional impacts of public policies in Turkey have led to Regional Development Agencies and related institutions having responsibility for setting and achieving sustainability policies at the regional level. As a result, there is a significant interest in developing empirical models that can deal with the macro, micro and regional impacts of economic policies and interregional spillover effects. Spatial or Multi-Regional Computable General Equilibrium models are the most capable models to handle a wide range of policy relevant regional questions and the effects of policies on a comprehensive set of regional and national economic variables. However, an important ingredient in meeting the Multi-Regional CGE analysis is Multi-Regional Social Accounting Matrices. This study is focusing on the building the first Multi-Regional Social Accounting Matrix for Turkey with 11 regions and 8 sectors. We utilize from the most updated available datasets and implement the most conveninent non-survey methods which fit to data availability in Turkey.
Keywords: Input-Output Models, Computable General Equilibrium Models, Regional Economics
Central Banking in the New Era
This paper analyzes the evolution of central banking, and in particular the American experience of central banking. It provides projections for the future of central banking in the new era of post 2008. The paper initially demonstrates recent improvements in the financial and banking sectors, regulations and different measures of monetary and financial rules both in the USA and the rest of the advanced economies. Then, it claims institutions, such as central banks, will gain new objectives and more significance in this new era and thus will be given new roles, over time and along with the improvements and deepening in the financial system. The paper argues centuries long central bank evolution is not complete yet and that more objectives should be expected to come forward. In that line, there is need for a shift in the conventional policy measures. New trends in central banking such as the helicopter money, popular nominal GDP targeting regime and the retro developmental central banking are all critically analyzed. The paper provides a breakdown of financial development and central banking activities in a historical context and provides a rationale and a new basis for possible future innovations.
Keywords: Monetary Policy, Central Banks, Quantitative Easing, Inflation Targeting, Nominal GDP Targeting
Aksemsettin Mah. Kocasinan Cad.
Erenoglu Is Merkezi
Fatih – Istanbul, TURKEY
Email: [email protected]
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.