Impact of the Fed’s Unconventional Monetary Policy on the US Financial Market
Silvia Trifonova and Svilen Kolev
This paper is devoted to the unconventional monetary policy measures implemented by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) after the global financial crisis. The objective is to conduct an empirical analysis and econometric study on the effects of the US Fed non-standard monetary policy measures on the US financial market, namely by observing the reaction on the US 10-year government bond yield, the US stock market via the S&P 500 index, and the exchange rate of the US dollar versus the euro (EUR/USD). The observed period spreads from January 2009 to March 2019, with the use of monthly data. It captures the Fed’s unconventional monetary policy measures, the first steps of the then planned gradual termination of quantitative easing (QE) and lifting of the interest rates, which was reverted in the course of 2019 and 2020. The results from the constructed vector error correction model suggest that Fed’s monetary policy stance continues to influence the changes in the bond yields, the S&P 500 index, and the value of the US dollar through the interest rate, the portfolio balance, and the exchange rate channels. The findings show that the process of normalization of the monetary policy regarding the future interest rates path in the US under the Fed’s monetary policy must be carefully guided. It must be consistent with the macroeconomic conditions and the state of the financial sector. The impact on the developed and emerging markets must be considered as well, with the main aim of avoiding potential serious risks.
Keywords: Monetary Policy, Unconventional Monetary Policy, Central Banks, Financial Markets, Quantitative Easing
The Use of Surrogate Currency to Address Liquidity Crisis: The Zimbabwean Experience
Varaidzo Denhere and David Mhlanga
Zimbabwe has experienced an economic meltdown dating back to 2000, which created perennial economic woes such as a liquidity crisis that continued haunting the country to date. Various possible solutions were explored but did not yield the desired results. Amongst the explored solutions was an introduction of surrogate currency specifically to curb the liquidity crisis. This paper sought to explore the effects of using “surrogate currency” to address the liquidity crisis in Zimbabwe by employing a desk review. Currently, there is a dearth of literature on using surrogate currency in African countries. Hence this study contributes to the existing literature on the use of such currency. The review established that the surrogate currency led to the emergence of bad money as propounded by Gresham’s law of currency systems. Moreover, the surrogate currency rapidly lost its value, whereas the introduction of the surrogate currency failed to address the liquidity crisis, leading to other socio-economic challenges. Finally, financial reporting under the surrogate currency became a challenge as well. This study recommends the withdrawal of the surrogate currency and the use of multicurrency along with the promotion of products for export to attract more foreign currency into the economy.
Keywords: Zimbabwe Currency Crisis, Black Market, Liquidity Crisis, Surrogate Currency
The Co-Integrating Relationship between Financial Inclusion and Economic Growth in the Southern African Development Community
This study examines the relationship between financial inclusion and economic growth in SADC. It uses panel data covering the period between 1995 to 2015 and employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds and the Toda and Yamamoto and Dolado and Lutkepohl (TYDL) models to examine the co-integrating relationship and the direction of causality respectively. The impact of financial inclusion on economic growth, when measured by the mobile penetration rate and the number of bank branches, diminishes in the long run to an extent of having a negative relationship with economic growth. This implies possible thresholds beyond which a negative impact on economic growth is realized. The long-run influence of financial inclusion on economic growth is hinged on financial technologies, measured by fixed broadband internet services, which have great potential to foster unique financial inclusion and shift the economic paradigm, leading to a digitalized economy. Only financial inclusion initiatives that result in increased bank deposit accounts promote economic growth. SADC is encouraged to liberalize its information and communications technology sector in order to fully benefit from financial inclusion initiatives. In addition, SADC should consider embracing international financial monitoring standards so that it does not fall behind the inevitable integration of the financial sectors.
Keywords: Economic Growth, Financial Inclusion, Co-integration, ARDL, TYDL, SADC
Software, Method, and Analysis: Reflections on the Use of ATLAS.ti in a Doctoral Research Study
This paper presents evidence from a user of a computer-assisted qualitative data analysis software (CAQDAS) referred to as ATLAS.ti on its usefulness and challenges in the content analysis of corporate annual reports (CARs) of top South African companies. The paper illustrates how ATLAS.ti was employed to perform the content analysis of 60 corporate annual reports to determine the extent of human capital disclosures by the top South African companies. Useful reports generated from the “hermeneutic unit” known as “AdePhD” include the primary document list, the code list, the code families, the code summary, the code-primary document list, the code-quotation list, and the network views. The reports from this qualitative analysis software facilitated the observations on the frequency of ninety-one human capital disclosure items analyzed from the corporate annual reports of companies in our sample. Findings indicate that the use of ATLAS.ti enabled a faster and robust analysis that would have taken a much longer time if done manually. It also facilitated more coherent results. Nevertheless, the major challenge is the lack of adequate institutional support for users when compared with the level of institutional support available for quantitative data analysis software such as the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS).
Keywords: ATLAS.ti, Content Analysis, Corporate Annual Reports, Corporate Reporting
Aksemsettin Mah. Kocasinan Cad.
Erenoglu Is Merkezi
Fatih – Istanbul, TURKEY
Email: [email protected]
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.