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Exchange Rate Forecast Futility for the Taka
Dipanwita Barai, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., and Adam G. Walke
DOI: 10.15604/ejef.2018.06.02.001
Abstract
An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) version of an error correction model based on a balance of payments approach is used to forecast the nominal exchange rate for the Bangladeshi taka. Based on existing trade volumes and trade practices, the bilateral exchange rate of the taka with the dollar is analyzed. Annual frequency data for a four decade period from 1976 to 2015 are utilized for the study. Descriptive statistics, formal inferential tests, and directional accuracy tests are used to assess out-of-sample forecast accuracy. Results indicate that, in spite of good in-sample estimation diagnostics, the model forecasts do not fare well against random walk benchmarks.
Keywords: Bangladesh, Taka, Bilateral Exchange Rate Forecast Accuracy
Is There Causality Relationship between Economic Growth and Income Inequality?: Panel Data Evidence from Indonesia
Khairul Amri and Nazamuddin
DOI: 10.15604/ejef.2018.06.02.002
Abstract
Our study aims to determine the causality relationship between economic growth and income inequality. Using panel data set of 26 provinces from Indonesia for a period of 2005 to 2015, Pedroni’s co-integration test, Panel Vector Error Correction Model, and Granger Causality Test were employed to analyze the relationship between the variables. Accordingly, the first main finding of the research is that there is a negative and significant relationship between the economic growth and income inequality in the long-run. Secondly, in the short run, the economic growth is positively and insignificantly related to income inequality. In addition, there is a unidirectional causality running from income inequality to economic growth.
Keywords: Economic Growth, Income Inequality, Panel VECM and Granger Causality Test
The Openness of the Insurance Industry: Data Inspection from China
Wang Ying
DOI: 10.15604/ejef.2018.06.02.003
Abstract
Among banking, securities, and insurance industries in the field of finance; insurance industry was opened earliest and most thoroughly. Starting from 1980 when foreign insurance companies were allowed to set up representative offices, China’s insurance industry has undergone nearly 40 years of opening-up. Under the background of China’s proposal to further enhance the opening-up of the financial industry, this paper assesses the actual opening-up of the insurance industry since 2004 from the three dimensions such as the number of Chinese-foreign joint-venture insurance companies, the premium income of foreign-funded insurance companies, and the asset size of foreign-funded insurance companies. The Mattoo method was used to measure the openness of the insurance industry since 1992. The results show that the openness of China’s insurance industry will reach the international advanced level after 2020 as a whole, but it will take a longer period for the life insurance industry to reach the level of developed countries. At present, the main problem facing China’s insurance industry is not excessive opening-up but the inadequacy of openness and industry competitiveness.
Keywords: Insurance Industry, Openness, Enhanced Supervision, High-Quality Development
Subjective Scope of the Concept of a “Body Governed by Public Law” in the Context of Public Oversight over the Public Procurement Market
Jaroslaw Odachowski
DOI: 10.15604/ejef.2018.06.02.004
Abstract
In the practice of awarding public contracts, particular interpretative problems arise concerning the subjective scope of application of the public procurement regime. In this context, of key significance is the issue of properly capturing and understanding the legal institution of the “body governed by public law” – as contained in the Directive of the European Parliament and of the Council 2014/24/EU of 26 February 2014 on public procurement and repealing Directive 2004/18/EC, as well as Directive of the European Parliament and of the Council 2014/25/EU of 26 February 2014 on procurement by entities operating in the water, energy, transport and postal services sectors and repealing Directive 2004/17/EC. Depending on the interpretation admitted, different categories of entities can then be either bound by or relieved of the duty to apply the cited provisions. What is more: the content of the aforementioned Directives impacts the content of national legal regulations concerning public procurement. Not only is the aforementioned term composed of several elements that must (generally) appear together with one another, but those elements themselves contain a range of imprecise and vaguely-defined terms. Their interpretation must therefore refer not only to the scholarly literature, but also case-law, particularly that of the CJEU. This publication is an attempt at exploring the particular elements comprising the concept of a “body governed by public law” in the context of public oversight of the public procurement market.
Keywords: Public Procurement, Body Governed By Public Law, Contracting Authorities, Objective Of A Body’s Activity, Influence Of Public Authorities
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