An Empirical Assessment of Social Unrest Dynamics and State Response in Eurasian Countries
Gonzalo de Cadenas-Santiago, Alicia García-Herrero, Álvaro Ortiz Vidal-Abarca, and Tomasa Rodrigo
This paper shows an empirical assessment of social unrest dynamics in the Eurasian countries. We use a big database of social events (GDELT) to build up several real time indexes of social unrest escalation by social agents divided in several stages consistent with the Unrest Lifecycle Theory (vindication, protest and conflict) and alternatives measures of state response (repression and cooperation). We build a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model to analyse the unrest dynamic cycle of social agents and state response. Our results show that Eurasia is a fairly volatile region in what shock-generation and inertia relates. Social reactivity is also relevant but we find that this is stronger at the initial stages of unrest while it decays as the intensity of shocks increases. Repressive state response is a fact but it decays too in intensity as the conflict escalates along the unrest cycle, falling even into an accommodative mode. We attribute this behaviour to the limited state enforcing ability of among other things. Unrest and government action are not homogenous across the region, West and Central Eurasia are more prone to conflict escalation and their enforcing ability of the state is also lower. This gives an insight were prevalent unrest theories such as unrest lifecycle; deterrence and backslash seem more dominant. We also find traces of spill over-effects or contagion among countries who share boundaries but the intensity and sign is undefined. We compare these stylized facts against the MENA region and suggest that Eurasia carries similar though milder dynamics in all terms, volatility and reactivity of social unrest, state response and enforcing inability and contagion.
Keywords: GDELT, Social Unrest, Conflict, State, Repression, VAR Models, Eurasia
Rethinking Agricultural Policy in Turkey: International Context and Domestic Developments
Fatma Nil Doner
The aim of this study is to provide a broad conceptual and historical outline of how rural development policies have been determined through technocratic policies in economic and political terms rather than participatory and transparent decision making processes. Given that the state and managerial expert groups have been the main architects of rural development and agricultural policies along with suprastate organizations such as the IMF and the World Bank, this study offers in-depth coverage of policy variations in two different cases: State-led planned economy and free market economy. This study seeks to assert that just as under the state-led economy model, the free market economy and technocratic policies in coordination with the IMF and the World Bank blocked mass mobilization and genuine democratic participation in the Turkish countryside. Neither the neoliberal and individualist nor the statist and corporatist perspectives were able to come to terms with the idea of a representative and transparent approach to policy-making processes in Turkey.
Keywords: Technocracy, Development, Patronage, Agricultural Policies, Structural Adjustment, IMF, World Bank
Identifying Poverty Correlates of Households’ Environmental Health Indicators in Nigeria: A Logistic Regression Paradigm
Sani Isyaku Usman and Abdullahi Daiyabu Marmara
This paper examines the correlates of poverty in Nigeria. While most of the studies done on poverty determinants rely on the socio-economic, demographic and health survey data, the present paper uses the survey data on environmental health indicators to determine poverty in Nigeria. A Logistic regression was estimated based on the data with the poverty as the binary dependent variable (that is poor and non-poor) and a set of environment health variables as the explanatory variables. The results presented in this paper suggested that the environmental health survey data can be used to determine the correlates of poverty. Thus, the study suggests among others that governments at all levels should put more effort in order to achieve sustainable environment through adequate provision of water supply and sanitation.
Keywords: Poverty, Poverty Correlates, Households, Environmental Health Indicators, Logistic Regression
Self-Development Territorial Systems as the Institute of Spatial Modernization of Old-Industrial Region
Opportunities and advantages of self-development territorial systems as the institute of spatial modernization of old-industrial region are justified in this article. Priority directions of formation and functioning, criteria for evaluating self-development territorial socio-economic systems are suggested in this paper (STSES).
Keywords: Spatial Development, Needs to Self-Development, Steps, Conditions and Criteria for Evaluating Self-Development Territorial Systems
The Resource Factor and Socio-Economic Development of the Post-Soviet Republics
Andrey Shelomentsev, Svetlana Doroshenko, and Olga Kozlova
The article presents the results of a study, the purpose of which was to test the hypotheses that represent the relationship of the resource sector to the socio-economic dynamics. Theoretical and methodological basis of the study were the concepts that reflect different views on the relationship of the resource sector and the national economy. Feature of this study is to select the object of study-the fifteen former Soviet republics having the early stage of public institutions, and are characterized by the search for models of effective involvement of the resource factor in the development of the national economy. Identify the relationships between the common trends of development of countries in the context of the selected groups and the extent of their commodity sector based on an analysis of the five macroeconomic indicators: GDP, public debt, foreign direct investment, unemployment, gross value added. Analysis revealed the relationship of the resource sector with the economic development of the post-Soviet countries in terms of the level, speed and quality of change.
Keywords: Resource Factor, Post-Soviet Republics, the National Economy, Development Institutions
Problems of a Modern Spatial Organization in the Euro-Asia Region
Julia Lavrikova, Svetlana Kotlyarova, and Arina Suvorova
The objective of this paper is to describe the trend of modern processes of transformation in the spatial organization of the Euro-Asian region. The study revealed several negative trends, which indicate the violation of the integrity of the spatial framework of the Euro-Asia region (that confirmed by the statistical data of some of the countries-Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus). It is allowed to offer some of the activities that contribute to increasing connectedness of the space and reducing its disintegration.
Keywords: Spatial Organization, Economic Space, the Euro-Asia Region, Development of Territorial Systems
Aksemsettin Mah. Kocasinan Cad.
Erenoglu Is Merkezi
Fatih – Istanbul, TURKEY
Email: [email protected]
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.